OptimumBank Holdings (OptimumBank Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is OptimumBank Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OptimumBank Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OptimumBank Holdings (OptimumBank Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » OptimumBank Holdings Inc (NAS:OPHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2929 East Commercial Boulevard, Suite 303, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33308

Website

https://www.optimumbank.com

OptimumBank Holdings Inc serves as a bank holding company for OptimumBank. The Bank provides a range of community banking services to individuals and corporate customers. Its services include demand interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal account, money market deposit accounts, debit cards, and automated teller machines.

Executives

Moishe Gubin	director	2929 E. COMMERCIAL BLVD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
Chan Heng Fai Ambrose	director	2601 INSLAND PLACE TOWER, 510 KINGS RD N POINT, HONG KONG K3 999999999
Jeffry T Wagner	director	7667 N. WICKHAM RD, SUITE 516, MELBOURNE FL 32940
Norman Joseph Ginsparg	director	3800 N 39 AVE, HOLLYWOOD FL 33021
Joel J. Klein	director	2477 E. COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
Seth Gillman	director	2477 E. COMMERCIAL BLVD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
Sam Borek	director	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324
Thomas A Procelli	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324
Wendy Mitchler	director	OPTIMUMBANK, 2477 EAST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
Howard Zusman	officer: Sr. VP-CLO, OptimumBank	2477 EAST COMMERCIAL BLVD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
Robert Acri	director	2477 E. COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33308
David Krinsky	director	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324
Albert J Finch	director, officer: Chairman of the Board, CEO	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324
Richard L Browdy	director, officer: President, CFO	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324
Irving P Cohen	director	OPTIMUMBANK, 10197 CLEARY BOULEVARD, PLANTATION FL 33324