Oracle (Oracle) Predictability Rank

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What is Oracle Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oracle Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oracle (Oracle) Business Description

Industry

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Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ORCL:Mexico 1ORCL:Italy ORCd:UK 0R1Z:UK ORC:Germany ORC:Germany ORC:Germany ORC:Germany ORCL34:Brazil ORCL:Austria ORCL:Argentina

Address

2300 Oracle Way, Austin, TX, USA, 78741

Website

https://www.oracle.com

Oracle provides database technology and enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software to enterprises around the world. Founded in 1977, Oracle pioneered the first commercial SQL-based relational database management system. Today, Oracle has 430,000 customers in 175 countries, supported by its base of 136,000 employees.

Executives

Naomi O Seligman	director	ONE DIAMOND HILL RD, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
George H Conrades	director	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Maria Smith	officer: EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Lawrence Joseph Ellison	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Michael J Boskin	director	C/O RIPPLEWOOD HOLDINGS LLC, ONE ROCKERFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
Edward Screven	officer: Chief Corporate Architect	C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Safra Catz	director, officer: President	C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Jeffrey Berg	director	C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT. CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Rona Alison Fairhead	director	C/O INTERACTIVE DATA CORPORATION, 32 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jeffrey Henley	director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman	C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT. CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Stuart Levey	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Renee Jo James	director	2111 NE 25TH AVE, JF1-41, HILLSBORO OR 97124
Awo Ablo	director	C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, #200, RENO NV 89511
Charles W Moorman	director	DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION, 550 SOUTH TRYON STREET - DEC45A, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Dorian Daley	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511