What is Orion Group Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Orion Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Orion Group Holdings (Orion Group Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12000 Aerospace Avenue, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77034
Orion Group Holdings Inc is a specialty construction company serving the infrastructure, industrial, and building sectors, providing services both on and off the water in the continental United States, Alaska, Canada and the Caribbean Basin through its marine segment and its concrete segment. Its marine segment provides construction and dredging services relating to marine transportation facility construction, marine pipeline construction, marine environmental structures, dredging of waterways, channels and ports, environmental dredging, design, and specialty services. Its concrete segment provides turnkey concrete construction services including pour and finish, dirt work, layout, forming, rebar, and mesh across the light commercial, structural and other associated business areas.
Executives
| Austin J Shanfelter |
director |
800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Gordon Scott Thanisch |
officer: EVP AND CFO |
12000 AEROSPACE AVE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| Travis J Boone |
director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO |
12000 AEROSPACE AVE, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| Smith Quentin P. Jr. |
director |
10361 N. 117TH PLACE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85259 |
| Michael J Caliel |
director |
1800 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Margaret M Foran |
director |
|
| Mary E Sullivan |
director |
5313 JAVELINA DR, CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78413 |
| Richard L. Daerr |
director |
12550 FUQUA ST., HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| Mark R. Stauffer |
officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer |
12550 FUQUA, HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| Robert L Tabb |
officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer |
12000 AEROSPACE SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| James Michael Pearson |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
|
| Peter R. Buchler |
officer: Vice President, Genl Counsel, other: Corporate Secretary |
12000 AEROSPACE DR., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77034 |
| Christopher James Dealmeida |
officer: VP Finance & Accounting |
1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Larry Dwayne Breaux |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
17403 SHOAL LAKE LN, HOUSTON TX 77095 |
| Gene G Stoever |
director |
5415 GRAYSTONE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77069 |
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