Patrick Industries (Patrick Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Patrick Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Patrick Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Patrick Industries (Patrick Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Patrick Industries Inc (NAS:PATK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PK2:Germany

Address

107 West Franklin Street, P.O. Box 638, Elkhart, IN, USA, 46515

Website

https://www.patrickind.com

Patrick Industries Inc makes and sells building products and materials for recreational vehicles and manufactured housing. The company is organized into two segments based on product type: manufacturing and distribution. The manufacturing segment, which generates the majority of revenue, sells laminated and vinyl products that include furniture, shelving, cabinets, bath fixtures, and countertops. The distribution segment sells prefinished wall and ceiling panels, as well as electrical and plumbing products for the RV and manufactured-housing industries. One of the firm's RV customers makes up a significant portion of revenue. Nearly all of Patrick Industries' revenue comes from North America.

Executives

Andy L Nemeth	director, officer: President	C/O PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC.,, P.O. BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515-0638
Kip B Ellis	officer: EVP Operations & COO	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, P.O. BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Jeff Rodino	officer: EVP-Sales, Chief Sales Officer	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, P.O.BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Todd M Cleveland	director, officer: CEO	107 W. FRANKLIN ST., ELKHART IN 46515
Derrick B Mayes	director	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Matthew S Filer	officer: Interim CFO, Treasurer & PAO	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
M Scott Welch	director	6 LONGWOOD COURT, ELKHART IN 46516
Stacey L Neu	officer: EVP & CHRO	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC., 3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Michael A Kitson	director	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, P.O. BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Pamela R Klyn	director	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Joel D Duthie	officer: Chief Legal Officer/Secretary	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Blosser Courtney	officer: Chief Human Resource Officer	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, P.O.BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Jacob R Petkovich	officer: EVP Finance, CFO & Treasurer	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
James E Rose	other: Principal Accounting Officer	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, PO BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515
Joshua A Boone	officer: VP - Finance & CFO	107 W. FRANKLIN STREET, P.O. BOX 638, ELKHART IN 46515