Prestige Consumer Healthcare (Prestige Consumer Healthcare) Predictability Rank

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What is Prestige Consumer Healthcare Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prestige Consumer Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Prestige Consumer Healthcare (Prestige Consumer Healthcare) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc (NYSE:PBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PBV:Germany

Address

660 White Plains Road, Tarrytown, NY, USA, 10591

Website

https://www.prestigebrands.com

Prestige Consumer Healthcare is one of the largest pure-play over-the-counter healthcare providers. It has a diverse portfolio composed of leading brands in niche consumer health categories. Prestige's key brands include Clear Eyes (redness relief), Dramamine (motion sickness relief), Monistat (vaginal anti-fungal), and Summer's Eve (feminine hygiene), and many of its brands enjoy category leadership and recommendations from medical professionals. The firm mainly plays in North America where it generates roughly 85% of its total revenue, and the remaining sales come from Australia, New Zealand, and certain Asian markets.

Executives

Mary Beth Fritz	officer: Senior VP Quality & Regulatory	660 WHITE PLAINS RD, 2ND FL, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Ronald M. Lombardi	officer: Chief Executive Officer	660 WHITE PLAINS RD., TARRYTOWN NY 10591
James Darecca	director	C/O HAEMONETICS CORPORATION, 125 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Christine Sacco	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SMART BALANCE, INC., 115 WEST CENTURY ROAD, SUITE 260, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Adel Mekhail	other: EVP, Marketing & Sales	660 WHITE PLAINS RD., 2ND FL, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
William P'pool	officer: See Remarks	2400 WEST LLOYD EXPRESSWAY, EVANSVILLE IL 47721
Celeste A. Clark	director	C/O ADVANCEPIERRE FOODS HOLDINGS, INC., 9987 CARVER ROAD, BLUE ASH OH 45242
Christopher J Coughlin	director
Natale S Ricciardi	director	C/O MORRIS COMMUNICATIONS CORP, 725 BROAD ST., AUGUSTA GA 30903
James M Jenness	director	PO BOX 3599, BATTLECREEK MI 49016-3599
John E Byom	director	660 WHITE PLAINS RD., TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Sheila Hopkins	director	C/O WARNACO INC, 90 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Dawn M. Zier	director	600 OFFICE CENTER DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Jeffrey Zerillo	officer: Senior VP Operations	660 WHITE PLAINS RD, 2ND FL, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Timothy Connors	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	660 WHITE PLAINS RD., SUITE 205, TARRYTOWN NY 10591