What is Pitney Bowes Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Pitney Bowes Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Pitney Bowes (Pitney Bowes) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3001 Summer Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06926
Pitney Bowes is a Global technology company that offers e-commerce solutions to its clients. The company provides various products and services such as domestic delivery, return and fulfillment, cross-border shipping solutions, sorting services for large volumes of postal mails, technological solutions to enable digital mailing, shipping, and other services. The company operates through three business segments: Global e-commerce, presort services, and SendTech Solutions. The company generates majority of its revenue from United States.
Executives
| Christopher Johnson |
officer: SVP & President, GFS |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Andrew Robert Gold |
officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Joseph Schmitt |
officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Deborah Pfeiffer |
officer: President, Presort Services |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Shemin Nurmohamed |
officer: President, SendTech Solutions |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Todd A. Everett |
director |
2700 VIA FORTUNA, SUITE 300, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
| Milena Alberti-perez |
director |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Kurt James Wolf |
director |
175 BRICKYARD ROAD, ADAMS TOWNSHIP PA 16046 |
| Katie May |
director |
1990 E. GRAND AVE., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Steven Brill |
director |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| James Darrell Thomas |
director |
3700 JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208 |
| Sheila A Stamps |
director |
C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039 |
| Mary Guilfoile |
director |
227 WASHINGTON STREET STE.200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| James Arthur Fairweather |
officer: EVP & Chief Innovation Officer |
3001 SUMMER ST, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
| Daniel J Goldstein |
officer: EVP/Chief Legal & Compliance |
1 ELMCROFT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06926 |
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