GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Precision Castparts Corp (NYSE:PCP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Precision Castparts (Precision Castparts) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Precision Castparts Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Precision Castparts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Precision Castparts Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Precision Castparts's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Precision Castparts (Precision Castparts) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Precision Castparts Corp was incorporated in the State of Oregon. The Company is a manufacturer of complex metal components and products provides high-quality investment castings, forgings and fasteners/fastener systems for critical aerospace and power applications. It also provides investment castings and forgings for general industrial, armament, medical and other applications; nickel alloys and mill forms, as well as cobalt alloys, for the aerospace, chemical processing, oil and gas, pollution control and other industries; seamless pipe for coal-fired, industrial gas turbine, and nuclear power plants, as well as oil and gas applications; fasteners for automotive and general industrial markets; specialty alloys for the investment casting industry; refiner plates, screen cylinders and other products for the pulp and paper industry; metal-injection-molded and ThixoFormedparts for automotive and other markets; grinder pumps and affiliated components for low pressure sewer systems; critical auxiliary equipment and gas monitoring systems for the power generation industry; and metalworking tools for the fastener market and other applications. It manufactures complex metal components and products in three main business segments: Investment Cast Products, Forged Products and Fastener Products. The Company's Investment Cast Products segment manufactures investment castings for aircraft engines, IGT engines, airframes, medical prostheses, armament, unmanned aerial vehicles and other industrial applications. The segment also provides alloys to PCC's investment casting operations, as well as to other investment casting companies. It manufactures forged components for the aerospace and power generation markets. Forged Products' aerospace and IGT sales are mainly derived from the same large engine customers served by the Investment Cast Products segment, with additional aerospace sales to manufacturers of landing gear and airframes. Therefore, the dynamics of the aerospace and IGT markets, as described in the Investment Cast Products section above, are virtually the same for Forged Products. It manufactures forged components for the aerospace and power generation markets. Forged Products' aerospace and IGT sales are mainly derived from the same large engine customers served by the Investment Cast Products segment, with additional aerospace sales to manufacturers of landing gear and airframes. Therefore, the dynamics of the aerospace and IGT markets, as described in the Investment Cast Products section above, are virtually the same for Forged Products. The Company's main competitors are Ladish Co., a subsidiary of Allegheny Technologies, Inc., Fortech, S.A. and Thyssen AG for aerospace turbine products, Alcoa Inc. and Firth Rixson Limited for aerospace structural products, Vallourec & Mannesmann Tubes and Sumitomo Corporation for energy products and Allegheny Technologies, Inc., Carpenter Technology Corporation, Haynes International, Inc., an
Executives
Ulrich Schmidt director PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP., 4650 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 400, PORTLAND OR 97239
Richard L Wambold director C/O PACTIV CORP, 1900 W FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Lester L Lyles director C/O MTC TECHNOLOGIES INC, 4032 LINDEN AVENUE, DAYTON OH 45432
Timothy A Wicks director C/O PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP., 4650 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 400, PORTLAND OR 97239
Andrew Masterman officer: EVP, Pres. Wyman-Gordon 401 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462-1646
Kevin M Stein officer: Exec VP TRANSDIGM GROUP INCORPORATED, 1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Steven G Rothmeier director C/O E.W BLANCH HOLDINGS INC, 500 N. AKARD #4500, DALLAS TX 75201
Russell S Pattee officer: VP and Corporate Controller PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP., 4650 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 400, PORTLAND OR 97239
Chris Ayers officer: Exec. VP, Pres. PCC Forgings 4650 S.W. MACADAM, SUITE #440, PORTLAND OR 97239
William D Larsson officer: Sr. VP and CFO 35 SHARPS CIRCLE, RENO NV 89519
Byron O Pond director C/O GSI GROUP INC., 125 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730-1409
Wayne F Robbins officer: President; PCC Flow Technologi 4650 SW MACADAM, STE 440, PORTLAND OR 97239

Precision Castparts (Precision Castparts) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Bill Nygren Comments on Precision Castparts Corp

By Vera Yuan Vera Yuan 04-09-2015

Mario Gabelli Sells 50 Stakes in 1st Quarter

By David Goodloe David Goodloe 05-06-2016

Wallace Weitz Comments on Precision Castparts

By Vera Yuan Vera Yuan 10-17-2014

Jeff Ubben Bought Wesco, Precision Castparts During Q1

By Tiziano Frateschi Tiziano Frateschi 06-01-2015

Warren Buffett Shuffles Holdings in Q3

By Julie Young Julie Young 11-16-2015