PDL BioPharma (PDL BioPharma) Predictability Rank

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What is PDL BioPharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PDL BioPharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PDL BioPharma (PDL BioPharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » PDL BioPharma Inc (NAS:PDLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

932 Southwood Boulevard, Incline Villiage, NV, USA, 89451

Website

http://www.pdl.com

PDL BioPharma Inc acquires and manages a portfolio of companies, products, royalty agreements and debt facilities in the biotech, pharmaceutical and medical device industries. The operating segments of the company are Medical Devices, Strategic Positions, Pharmaceutical and Income Generating Assets, of which key revenue is derived from the Pharmaceutical segment. The Pharmaceutical segment consists of revenue derived from branded prescription medicine products sold under the name Tekturna and Tekturna HCT in the U.S, and Rasilez and Rasilez HCT in the rest of the world (collectively, the Noden Products). Geographically, the company operates in Europe, North America, Asia and Other countries, of which prime revenue is generated from Asia and North America.

Executives

David W Gryska	director	749 N MARY AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
John Peter Mclaughlin	director	C/O PDL BIOPHARMA, INC., 932 SOUTHWOOD BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Dominique Monnet	officer: President and CEO	C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
Christopher Lewis Stone	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD. INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Alan Lee Bazaar	director	9 BEDFORD ROAD, KATONAH NY 10536
Natasha Hernday	director	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Edward Imbrogno	officer: VP Finance, CAO and Acting CFO	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD. INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Jill M. Jene	officer: VP, Business Development	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD., INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Harold E Selick	director
Samuel R Saks	director	3180 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Paul W Sandman	director	C/O PDL BIOPHARMA, INC., 932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Shlomo Yanai	director	ONE MEADOWLANDS PLAZA, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073
Peter S Garcia	officer: Vice President, CFO	ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC., 866 MALCOLM ROAD, SUITE 100, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Jody S Lindell	director	2536 FILLMORE ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115
Paul R Edick	director	C/O NEWLINK GENETICS CORP., 2503 SOUTH LOOP DR., SUITE 5100, AMES IA 50010