Principal Financial Group (Principal Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Principal Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Principal Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Principal Financial Group (Principal Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Principal Financial Group Inc (NAS:PFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PG4:Germany

Address

711 High Street, Des Moines, IA, USA, 50392

Website

https://www.principal.com

Principal Financial Group Inc is a leader in Global investment management offering businesses, individuals and institutional clients a wide range of financial products and services, including retirement, asset management and insurance through our diverse family of financial services companies. It operates in four business segments that are Retirement and Income Solutions, Principal Global Investors, Principal International, and United States Insurance Solutions. The company receives maximum revenue in the form of premiums.

Executives

Luis E. Valdes	officer: Executive Chairman, Latam	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392-0300
Sandra L Helton	director	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392-0300
Wee Yee Cheong	officer: EVP, Principal Asia	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392
Roberto Walker	officer: EVP, Principal Latin American	711 HIGH ST., DES MOINES IA 50392
Renee V. Schaaf	officer: President - RIS	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392
Natalie Lamarque	officer: EVP, General Counsel, and Secr	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392
H Elizabeth Mitchell	director	PLATINUM UNDERWRITERS REINSURANCE, INC., 2 WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, SUITE 2300, NEW YORK NY 10281
Jonathan Auerbach	director	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Claudio Muruzabal	director	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392
Maliz E Beams	director	C/O PORT FINANCIAL CORP, 1380 SOLDIERS FIELD RD, BRIGHTON MA 02135
Alfredo Rivera	director	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Scott Mills	director	1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Clare Stack Richer	director	BAIN CAPITAL, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Diane C Nordin	director	711 HIGH ST., DES MOINES IA 50392
Roger C Hochschild	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015