Pacific Health Care Organization (Pacific Health Care Organization) Predictability Rank

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What is Pacific Health Care Organization Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pacific Health Care Organization Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pacific Health Care Organization (Pacific Health Care Organization) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Pacific Health Care Organization Inc (OTCPK:PFHO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19800 MacArthur Boulevard, Suites 306 and 307, Irvine, CA, USA, 92612

Website

https://www.pacifichealthcareorganization.com

Pacific Health Care Organization Inc is a specialty workers' compensation managed care company. The company serves any size employer in the state of California as well as insurers, third-party administrators, self-administered employers, municipalities and other industries. Its services include two HCOs, MPNs, medical case management, utilization review, medical bill review, workers' compensation carve-outs and Medicare set-aside services. It also provides lien representation and expert witness testimony, ancillary to other services.

Executives

Tom Kubota	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO	615 BAY HILL DR, NEWPROT BEACH CA 92660
Lauren Kubota	director	1201 DOVE STREET, SUITE 300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Kristina Kubota	director	1201 DOVE STREET, SUITE 300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Gunter Soraperra	director	LANGAKER 5A, NUZIDERS C4 A-6714
Stacy A Hadley	director	5514 WILD MILBERRY DRIVE, KATY TX 77494
Fred U Odaka	officer: Chief Financial Officer	21 TOULON, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
David Wang	director	21 TOULON, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Frank R. Hough	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2222 FOOTHILL BOULEVARD, SUITE E-370, LA CANADA-FLINTRIDGE CA 91011
Thomas Iwanski	director	1280 BISON STREET, SUITE B9-596, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Donald Hellwig	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	1280 BISON STREET, SUITE B9-596, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Tom Roush	director	5557 NORTH CATTAIL WAY, BOISE ID 83714
Nanko Investments Inc	10 percent owner	615 BAY HILL DR, NEWPROT BEACH CA 92660
Rudy Larusso	director, officer: Secretary	218 HOMEWOOD RD, LOS ANGELES CA 90049