PHX Minerals (PHX Minerals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1991. Start your Free Trial

What is PHX Minerals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PHX Minerals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PHX Minerals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PHX Minerals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PHX Minerals (PHX Minerals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » PHX Minerals Inc (NYSE:PHX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5AH:Germany

Address

1320 South University Drive, Suite 720, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76107

Website

https://www.phxmin.com

PHX Minerals, previously Panhandle Oil & Gas, is an oil and natural gas mineral company that has employed a strategy to shift the core of its business away from drilling and toward perpetual mineral and natural gas ownership. The company owns substantial mineral acreage, principally in Oklahoma, North Dakota, Texas, New Mexico, and Arkansas, but still maintains legacy interests in natural gas and oil properties that have retired operations. The sale of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil continues to be the primary source of the company's revenue.

Executives

Edenbrook Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	116 RADIO CIRCLE, SUITE 202, MT. KISCO NY 10549
Chad True	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	2113 NW 59TH PLACE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73112
Raphael D'amico	officer: VP - Business Development	5400 NORTH GRAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73112
Chad L Stephens	director	100 THROCKMORTON, SUITE 1200, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Srp Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD., SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Steven L Packebush	director	3503 NW 63RD STREET, SUITE 500, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116-2238
Peter B Delaney	director	P.O. BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Christopher T. Fraser	director	9555 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77099
Glen A Brown	director	P.O. BOX 268836, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73126
William T Fennebresque	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Srpo-ii Manager, Lp	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Cwep-srpoii Investments, Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Palmetto Investment Partners, Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Palmetto Investment Partners Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219
Ryan A Turner	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75219