Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Predictability Rank

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What is Douglas Dynamics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Douglas Dynamics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Douglas Dynamics Inc (NYSE:PLOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5D4:Germany

Address

11270 W Park Place, Suite 300, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224

Website

https://www.douglasdynamics.com

Douglas Dynamics Inc is a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial vehicle attachments and equipment. The Company's portfolio includes snow and ice management attachments sold under the BLIZZARD, FISHER, HENDERSON, SNOWEX and WESTERN brands, turf care equipment under the TURFEX brand and industrial maintenance equipment under the SWEEPEX brand. The Company's portfolio also includes the upfit of attachments and storage solutions under the HENDERSON brand, and the DEJANA brand and its related sub-brands. The Company also leases fifteen manufacturing and upfit and service facilities located in Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The Company conducts business in two segments: Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions.

Executives

Robert L Mccormick	officer: President and CEO	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
James L Janik	director	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Genderen Mark Van	officer: President - Work Truck Attm.	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Linda R Evans	officer: VP of Human Resources	7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Jon J Sisulak	officer: Controller	7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Sarah C Lauber	officer: CFO and Secretary	833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joher Akolawala	director	11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Keith Hagelin	officer: VP, Operations	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Jonathon P. Sievert	officer: President - Henderson Products	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Lisa R Bacus	director	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Andrew Dejana	officer: * See Remarks below	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Robert J Young	officer: Controller	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Mark Adamson	officer: VP, Sales and Marketing	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Michael W Wickham	director	C/O ROADWAY CORP, 1077 GORGE BLVD, AKRON OH 44310
Margaret S Dano	director	FLEETWOOD ENTERPRISES INC, 3125 MYERS STREET PO BOX 7638, RIVERSIDE CA 92513-7638