Plexus (Plexus) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1986. Start your Free Trial

What is Plexus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Plexus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Plexus Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Plexus's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Plexus (Plexus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Plexus Corp (NAS:PLXS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PX4:Germany

Address

One Plexus Way, P.O. Box 156, Neenah, WI, USA, 54957

Website

https://www.plexus.com

Plexus Corp is a U.S based Electronic Manufacturing Services company that provides a range of services, from conceptualization and design to fulfilling orders and providing sustaining solutions, such as replenishment and refurbishment. The company's segments comprise AMER, APAC,ge and EMEA.

Executives

Todd P. Kelsey	officer: Sr VP Global Customer Services	55 JEWELERS PARK DRIVE, NEENAH WI 54956
Frank Zycinski	officer: Regional President - EMEA	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH WI 54956
Ronnie Darroch	officer: Regional President-Plexus EMEA	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH X1 54956
Jennifer Wuamett	director	6501 WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE WEST, AUSTIN TX 78735
Ninivaggi Angelo Michael Jr	officer: Vice Pres., General Counsel	55 JEWELERS PARK DRIVE, NEENAH WI 54956
Patrick John Jermain	officer: Vice President & CFO	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH WI 54956
Oliver K. Mihm	officer: Sr VP-Global Engineering Servs	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH X1 54956
Steven J. Frisch	officer: Sr VP Global Eng Services	55 JEWELERS PARK DRIVE, NEENAH WI 54956
Tan Victor (pang Hau)	officer: Regional President - APAC	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH WI 54956
Scott Theune	officer: Regional President - AMER	ONE PLEXUS WAY, NEENAH WI 54956
J Joel Quadracci	director	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Randy J Martinez	director	HLH BUILDING, 101 WORLD DRIVE, PEACHTREE CITY GA 30269
Michael V Schrock	director	5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 800, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Dean A Foate	director, officer: President and CEO
Stephen P Cortinovis	director	C/O INSITUFORM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 17988 EDISON AVENUE, CHESTERFIELD MO 63005