PPG Industries (PPG Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is PPG Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PPG Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PPG Industries (PPG Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » PPG Industries Inc (NYSE:PPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PPG:Mexico PPQ:Germany

Address

One PPG Place, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15272

Website

https://www.ppg.com

PPG is a global producer of coatings. The company is the world's largest producer of coatings after the purchase of selected Akzo Nobel assets. PPG's products are sold to a wide variety of end users, including the automotive, aerospace, construction, and industrial markets. The company has a footprint in many regions around the globe, with less than half of sales coming from North America in recent years. PPG is focused on its coatings and specialty products and expansion into emerging regions, as exemplified by the Comex acquisition.

Executives

Iii Chris Roberts	director	1716 LOCUST ST. LS-175, 7TH FLOOR, DES MOINES IA 50309
Vincent J Morales	officer: Senior VP & CFO	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Michael H Mcgarry	officer: Senior Vice President	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Chancey E. Hagerty	officer: Sr. VP, Auto. Refinish Ctgs.	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Karl Henrik Bergstrom	officer: Sr.VP, Arch Ctgs LA, EMEA, AP	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Kevin D. Braun	officer: Sr. VP, Industrial Coatings	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Anne M. Foulkes	officer: Sr. VP, Gen. Counsel & Secrtry	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Rebecca B. Liebert	officer: Sr. VP, Automotive Coatings	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Brian Richard Williams	officer: Acting Controller	ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Timothy M Knavish	officer: Sr. VP, Automotive Coatings	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Guillermo Novo	director	AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC., 7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195
Michael Nally	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
William E Schaupp	officer: Assistant Controller (PAO)	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Kathleen Ligocki	director	3296 PINE LAKE ROAD, WEST BLOOMFIELD MI 48324
Vadlamannati Ramaprasad	officer: Sr. VP, Protect. & Marine Ctgs	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272