What is Proto Labs Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Proto Labs Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Proto Labs (Proto Labs) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5540 Pioneer Creek Drive, Maple Plain, MN, USA, 55359
Proto Labs Inc is an on-demand manufacturer of custom parts for prototyping and short-run production. The company offers developers and engineers quick-turn production services to reduce the time to market. Proto Labs uses injection molding, computer numerical control machining, and 3-D printing to manufacture custom parts for its clients. The company services clients' needs for prototype solutions, parts for testing procedures, bridge production capabilities during disruptions in manufacturing processes, limited-quantity requests, and end-of-life production support. The majority of its revenue is derived from the United States of America.
Executives
| Oleg Ryaboy |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Robert Bodor |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Baker Arthur R. Iii |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
14000 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344-2290 |
| Daniel Schumacher |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Stacy Greiner |
director |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Michael R. Kenison |
officer: VP and GM of the America's |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| John B Goodman |
director |
3500 LYMAN BLVD, CHASKA MN 55379 |
| Victoria M Holt |
director, officer: President and CEO |
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272 |
| Ranier Gawlick |
director |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Sven Wehrwein |
director |
|
| John Way |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Moonhie Chin |
director |
AUTODESK, INC., 111 MCINNIS PARKWAY, SAN RAFAEL CA 94903 |
| Bjoern Klaas |
officer: VP and Mng Director-PL Europe |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| John B. Tumelty |
officer: Managing Dir.-Proto Labs, Ltd. |
5540 PIONEER CREEK DRIVE, MAPLE PLAIN MN 55359 |
| Sujeet Chand |
director |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC., 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204 |
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