Palatin Technologies (Palatin Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Palatin Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Palatin Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Palatin Technologies (Palatin Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Palatin Technologies Inc (AMEX:PTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PTN:Germany PTN:Germany

Address

4B Cedar Brook Drive, Cranbury, NJ, USA, 08512

Website

https://www.palatin.com

Palatin Technologies Inc is a part of the healthcare sector. The company is engaged in developing targeted, receptor-specific peptide therapeutics for the treatment of diseases with unmet medical needs and commercial potential. Its programs are based on molecules that modulate the activity of the melanocortin and natriuretic peptide receptor systems. Its main product in clinical development is bremelanotide, which treats hypoactive sexual desire disorder, which is a type of female sexual dysfunction.

Executives

Stephen T Wills	officer: Executive Vice President, CFO	PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Alan W Dunton	director	VICURON PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 455 S GULPH ROAD SUITE 305, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Carl Spana	director, officer: President and CEO	PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Deveer Robert K Jr	director	C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES INC, 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Joseph Stanley Hull	director	PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Arlene Morris	director	C/O AFFYMAX, INC., 4001 MIRANDA AVE., PALO ALTO CA 94304
Anthony M. Manning	director	C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Angela Rossetti	director	PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Robert I Taber	director	C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES INC, 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Zola P Horovitz	director	C/O GENAERA CORP, 5110 CAMPUS DDRIVE, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Perry B Molinoff	director, officer: Exec. VP Research and Devel.	C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES INC, 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Inc/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104