Penns Woods Bancorp (Penns Woods Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Penns Woods Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Penns Woods Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Penns Woods Bancorp (Penns Woods Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Penns Woods Bancorp Inc (NAS:PWOD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Market Street, P.O. Box 967, Williamsport, PA, USA, 17703-0967

Website

https://www.pwod.com

Penns Woods Bancorp Inc is the bank holding company for Jersey Shore State Bank and Luzerne Bank. The banks serve customers in North Central and North Eastern Pennsylvania through their retail banking, commercial banking, mortgage services and financial services divisions. The Banks are engaged in commercial and retail banking which includes the acceptance of time, savings, and demand deposits, the funding of commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans, and safe deposit services. Utilizing a branch office network, ATMs, Internet, and telephone banking delivery channels, the Banks deliver their products and services to the communities residing in.

Executives

Charles E. Kranich	director	1025 GREENBRIAR DRIVE, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801-6936
William Edwards	director	885 SHADE HOLLOW ROAD, MILL HALL PA 17751
Cameron Kephart	director	300 MARKET STREET, P.O. BOX 967, WILLIAMSPORT PA 17703
Daniel K. Brewer	director	23 LONG VIEW DRIVE, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Richard A Grafmyre	director, officer: President and CEO	115 SKYWARD DRIVE, DANVILLE PA 17821
Brian L Knepp	officer: VP of Finance/Asst. Secretary	ONE STRAWBERRY LANE, MIDDLEBURG PA 17842
Jack W. Jones	officer: CBO	300 MARKET STREET, P. O. BOX 967, WILLIAMSPORT PA 17703
Robert Neher	officer: President Luzerne Bank	300 MARKET STREET, P.O. BOX 967, WILLIAMSPORT PA 17703
Furey James M Ii	director	299 LEHMAN DRIVE, COGAN STATION PA 17728
Nackley John G Sr	director	559 LAKESIDE DRIVE, HARVEYS LAKE PA 18618
Joseph E Kluger	director	1768 PENNS CROSSING, ALLENTOWN PA 18104
D Michael Hawbaker	director	502 STONECLIFFE PLACE, PORT MATILDA PA 16870
Jill Fortinsky Schwartz	director	857 NANDY DRIVE, KINGSTON PA 18704
Michelle M Karas	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PENNS WOODS BANCORP, INC., 300 MARKET STREET, WILLIAMSPORT PA 17703
Robert Q. Miller	director	534 MUNRO ROAD, MILL HALL PA 17751