P10 (PX) Predictability Rank

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What is P10 Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

P10 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

P10 Predictability Rank Related Terms

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P10 (PX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » P10 Inc (NYSE:PX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AC3:Germany

Address

4514 Cole Avenue, Suite 1600, Dallas, TX, USA, 75205

Website

https://www.p10alts.com

P10 Inc is a multi-asset class private market solutions provider in the alternative asset management industry. Its revenue is composed of recurring management and advisory fees, with the vast majority of fees earned on committed capital.

Executives

Michael Feinglass	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Andrew Rowan Nelson	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Alexander I. Abell	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Edwin A. Poston	director, other: See Remarks	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
David M. Mccoy	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Sarsfield Luke A. Iii	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Jon I. Madorsky Revocable Trust Dated December 1, 2008	other: See Remarks	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Travis H. Barnes	director	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Stewart Robert B Jr	director	520 NEWPORT CENTER DR., 12TH FLOOR, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
C Clark Webb	10 percent owner	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, DALLAS TX 75225
Covenant Rha Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 650, DALLAS TX 75225
Mel Williams	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Thomas P. Danis, Jr. Revocable Living Trust Dated March 10, 2003	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Truebridge Colonial Fund, U/a Dated 11/15/2015	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205
Souder Family Llc	10 percent owner	C/O P10, INC., 4514 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75205