Quaint Oak Bancorp (Quaint Oak Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Quaint Oak Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quaint Oak Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quaint Oak Bancorp (Quaint Oak Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Quaint Oak Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:QNTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

501 Knowles Avenue, Southampton, PA, USA, 18966

Website

https://www.quaintoak.com

Quaint Oak Bancorp Inc is a Pennsylvania-chartered stock savings bank and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Quaint Oak Bancorp Inc, is headquartered in Southampton, Pennsylvania and conducts business through three regional offices located in the Delaware Valley, Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia markets. Quaint Oak Bank has many subsidiary companies these subsidiary companies conduct business from numerous locations within the Bank's market area. The Bank holds a majority equity position in Oakmont Capital Holdings, LLC, a multi-state equipment finance company based in West Chester, Pennsylvania with a second significant facility located in Albany, Minnesota.

Executives

James J Clarke	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Susan M. Vettori	director	QUAINT OAK BANCORP, INC., 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Dipiero Andrew E Jr	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
John J Augustine	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Diane J Colyer	officer: SVP and Corporate Secretary	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
William R Gonzalez	officer: Senior Vice President*	QUAINT OAK BANCORP, INC., 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Robert T Strong	director, officer: President and CEO	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Aimee K Ott	officer: Vice President*	501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Robert Farrer	officer: VP Risk and Compliance*	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Robert J Phillips	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Kenneth R Gant	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Marsh B Spink	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Ager George M Jr	director	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966
Curt T Schulmeister	officer: Chief Lending Officer*	QUAINT OAK BANK, 501 KNOWLES AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON PA 18966