What is RBC Bearings Predictability Rank?
4.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
RBC Bearings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
RBC Bearings (RBC Bearings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
102 Willenbrock Road, One Tribology Center, Oxford, CT, USA, 06478
RBC Bearings Inc is a manufacturer and marketer of precision bearings and products used in aircraft and mechanical systems. The offering includes plain bearings, roller bearings, ball bearings, and engineered products. The products reduce wear in moving parts, facilitate proper power transmission, reduce damage and energy loss, and control pressure and flow. The primary customers for RBC Bearings are industrial markets and aerospace markets such as construction and mining, oil and natural resource extraction, heavy truck, marine, rail and train, packaging, commercial, private and military aircraft engines, and guided weaponry. The end market is the United States of America.
Executives
| Michael H. Ambrose |
director |
ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, 102 WILLENBROCK ROAD, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Michael J Hartnett |
officer: President and CEO |
RBC BEARINGS, INC., 102 WILLENBROCK ROAD, ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Richard R Crowell |
director |
AURORA CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 10877 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 2100, LOS ANGELES CA 90024 |
| Dolores J Ennico |
director |
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED, ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Robert M Sullivan |
officer: Corporate Controller |
103 STILLWOLD DRIVE, WETHERSFIELD CT 06109 |
| John J. Feeney |
officer: Vice President and Secretary |
ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, 102 WILLENBROCK ROAD, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Steven H. Kaplan |
director |
11 LINDEN SHORES, BRANFORD CT 06405 |
| Patrick S. Bannon |
officer: V.P. and General Manager |
131 WOODS WAY DRIVE, SOUTHBURY CT 06488 |
| Richard J Edwards |
officer: V.P. and General Manager |
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED, ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Edward Stewart |
director |
5715 EAST CHENEY DRIVE, PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253 |
| Daniel A Bergeron |
officer: VP and CFO |
|
| Alan B Levine |
director |
|
| Ernest D Hawkins |
officer: Vice President of Finance |
102 WILLENBROCK ROAD, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Amir Faghri |
director |
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED, ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, OXFORD CT 06478 |
| Joseph Salamunovich |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED, ONE TRIBOLOGY CENTER, OXFORD CT 06478 |
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