RCM Technologies (RCM Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is RCM Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RCM Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RCM Technologies (RCM Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » RCM Technologies Inc (NAS:RCMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2500 McClellan Avenue, Suite 350, Pennsauken, NJ, USA, 08109-4613

Website

https://www.rcmt.com

RCM Technologies Inc is a provider of business and technology solutions designed to enhance and maximize the operational performance of its customers. It operates in three segments: Engineering, which provides a comprehensive portfolio of engineering and design services across three verticals: Energy Services, Process & Industrial, and Aerospace; Information Technology; and Specialty Health Care Services, engaged in providing the staffing of health care professionals, primarily health information management professionals, nurses, paraprofessionals, physicians, and therapists. The company generates maximum revenue from the Specialty Health Care segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Canada, Puerto Rico, and Serbia.

Executives

Kevin D Miller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Bradley Vizi	10 percent owner	10390 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 406, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Michael Saks	other: Sr. Vice President	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Chigozie Obinna Amadi	director	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Roger H Ballou	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation	C/O CDI CORP, 1717 ARCH ST 35TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Richard A. Genovese	director	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Jayanth Sree Komarneni	director	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Swarna Srinivas Kakodkar	director	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Michael Edward Boyle	officer: Division President, IT Srvs.	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Harvest Financial Corporation	other: See Explanation	1055 LPL WAY, 223 FOURTH AVENUE, FORT MILL SC 29715
Petraglia Frank William Jr	officer: Sr. Vice President	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Irs Partnership No. 19, L.p.	10 percent owner	515 S. FIGUEROA STREET, SUITE 1050, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Danny A. White	officer: Sr. Vice President	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Maier O Fein	director	2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Michael O'connell	10 percent owner	515 S. FIGUEROA STREET, SUITE 1050, LOS ANGELES CA 90071