Radian Group (Radian Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Radian Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Radian Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Radian Group (Radian Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Radian Group Inc (NYSE:RDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RAG:Germany

Address

550 East Swedesford Road, Suite 350, Wayne, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.radian.com

Radian Group Inc provides mortgage insurance and services to the real estate and mortgage finance industries. Radian's mortgage insurance provides coverage to lending institutions throughout the United States. Its services include analytics and consulting for buyers and sellers of, and investors in, mortgage- and real estate-related loans and securities and other asset-backed securities. Insurance premiums account for more than three fourths of the company's revenue. Services revenue and investment income are the other principal sources of revenue. It operates in two segments: Mortgage and homegenius. The Mortgage segment earns the majority of revenue.

Executives

Gregory Serio	director	RADIAN GROUP INC., 1601 MARKET ST., PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Lisa Hess	director	RADIAN GROUP, 1601 MARKET ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Margaret Anne Leyden	director	550 E. SWEDESFORD RD.,, STE 350, WAYNE PA 19087
Edward J Hoffman	officer: SVP, Secretary and General Cou	1601 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Lisa Mumford	director	6 BEACHWOOD COURT, DIX HILLS NY 11746
Eric Ray	officer: Sr, Executive Vice President	C/O RADIAN, 1500 MARKET ST., #2050W, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Noel Joseph Spiegel	director	RADIAN GROUP INC., 1601 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Howard Bernard Culang	director	9 MARISSA COURT, ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS NJ 07716
Derek Brummer	officer: Chief Risk Officer	RADIAN GROUP INC., 1601 MARKET ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sumita Pandit	officer: Sr. EVP, Chief Growth Officer	550 EAST SWEDESFORD RD., #350, WAYNE PA 19087
Fawad Ahmad	director	C/) RADIAN GROUP INC., 550 E. SWEDESFORD RD., #350, WAYNE PA 19087
Brien Mcmahon	officer: EVP & Chief Franchise Officer	1500 MARKET ST., WEST TOWER, #2050, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Richard G Thornberry	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	RADIAN, 1601 MARKET ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Mary Dickerson	officer: EVP Chief People Officer	RADIAN GROUP INC., 1500 MARKET ST., #2050W, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Brad L. Conner	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901