Regis (RGS) Predictability Rank

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What is Regis Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Regis Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Regis (RGS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Regis Corp (NAS:RGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RGI0:Germany

Address

3701 Wayzata Boulevard, Suite 500, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55416

Website

https://www.regiscorp.com

Regis Corp owns, franchises, and operates beauty salons throughout North America and the United Kingdom. The company's locations provide salon products and services to the mass market, including haircutting, styling, and hair coloring. The vast majority of Regis' salons are in strip malls, shopping centers, and Wal-Mart stores in North America and serve price-conscious customers. The company derives the majority of its revenue from these locations. The sale of products also contributes a relatively significant percentage of total sales. Regis also operates a smaller portfolio of premium salons across North America and the U.K. The company's majority brands include SmartStyle, Cost Cutters, and Supercuts.

Executives

Nancy Cunningham Benacci	director	PO BOX 145496, CINCINNATI OH 45250
Devore Michelle St. Lawrence	officer: SVP, Marketing	6119 BRANDEIS LANE, DALLAS TX 75214
Andra Jean Terrell	officer: SVP, General Counsel	4922 MARLOS DRIVE NE, MARIETTA GA 30066
James Raymon Suarez	officer: SVP Merchandising & Education	9043 VICTORIA DRIVE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Michael Joseph Mansbach	director	4051 BROAD STREET, SUITE 220, SAN LUIS OBISPO CA 93401
Lockie Andrews	director	3701 WAYZATA BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
John C. Davi	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	3701 WAYZATA BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Springhill Investments Llc	10 percent owner	ONE TOWNE SQUARE, SUITE 1600, SOUTHFIELD MI 48076
James Grosfeld	10 percent owner	C/O MERRILL LYNCH ASSET MANAGEMENT, 800 SCUDDERS MILL RD LEGAL ADVISORY 2-B, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
James Grosfeld Trust	10 percent owner	ONE TOWNE SQUARE, SUITE 1600, SOUTHFIELD MI 48076
New Walnut Gp Llc	10 percent owner	655 MADISON AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Torch Brc, Lp	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 839, SUITE 2215, NEW YORK NY 10174
Walnut Brc, L.p.	10 percent owner	655 MADISON AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jim Brian Lain	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	7201 METRO BOULEVARD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55439
Michael Heath Ferranti	officer: SVP, People and Culture	16011 RANCHITA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75252