Regi US (Regi US) Predictability Rank

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What is Regi US Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regi US Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Regi US Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Regi US (Regi US) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Regi US Inc (OTCPK:RGUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7520 North Market Street, Suite 10, Spokane, WA, USA, 99217

Website

https://www.radmaxtech.com

Regi US Inc is engaged in the business of developing and building axial vane-type rotary devices for civilian, commercial and government applications. The company also owns the intellectual and marketing rights to the RadMax technology. Its product portfolio consists of RadMax Engine, RadMax Pump, RadMax Compressor, and RadMax Rotary Gas Expander.

Executives

Paul Willard Chute	director, officer: CEO	7520 N. MARKET ST. #10 SPOKANE WA 99217
Paul L. Porter	director, officer: President	19315 N. NORTHLANE COLBERT WA 99005
Michael S. Urso	other: Employee	7520 N. MARKET STREET #10 SPOKANE WA 99217
Lynn L Petersen	director, officer: VP.	8306 N. FOREST CT. SPOKANE WA 99208
James W Slinger	director	405 BLAKERIDGE LN WATSONVILLE CA 95076
Susanne Robertson	director	1110-5177 BRIGHOUSE WAY RICHMOND BC A1 V7E 2Z3
Jina Liu	director	15 OAKCREST AVE UNIONVILLE A6 L3R2B9
Victoria Huang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SUITE 500-666 BURRARD STREET VANCOUVER A1 V6C3P6
Jgr Petroleum Inc	other: Related Company	1103 11871 HORSEHOE WAY RICHMOND A1 999999999
John Robertson	director	1103 11871 HORSEHOE WAY RICHMOND A1 999999999
Rand Energy Group Inc	other: RELATED COMPANY	1103 11871 HORSEHOE WAY RICHMOND A1 999999999
Smr Investments Ltd	other: Related Company	240 - 11780 HAMMERSMITH WAY RICHMOND A1 V7A 5E9
James Vandeberg	director, officer: CFO	10710 NE 10TH STREET #1307, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Jennifer Lorette	director	240 - 11780 HAMMERSMITH WAY RICHMOND A1 V7A 5E9
Reg Technologies Inc	10 percent owner	2161 YONGE STREET, SUITE 210 TORONTO A6 M4S 3A6