Retail Opportunity Investments (Retail Opportunity Investments) Predictability Rank

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What is Retail Opportunity Investments Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Retail Opportunity Investments Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Retail Opportunity Investments (Retail Opportunity Investments) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Retail Opportunity Investments Corp (NAS:ROIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11250 El Camino Real, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.roireit.net

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp is a self-managed real estate investment trust. The company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community and neighborhood shopping centers on the west coast of the United States, anchored by supermarkets and drugstores. The Company's primary business is the ownership, management, and redevelopment of retail real estate properties.

Executives

Michael J. Indiveri	director	3 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Laura H Pomerantz	director
Lauren N. Silveira	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP., 11250 EL CAMINO ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Adrienne Banks Pitts	director	C/O RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP, 11250 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Zabrina Jenkins	director	C/O RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENT CORP., 11250 EL CAMINO REAL. SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Richard Schoebel	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP., 3 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Angela K Ho	director	975 HOOPER AVENUE, TOMS RIVER NJ 08753
Eric S Zorn	director	2001 S.E. 10TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Charles J. Persico	director	112 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Michael B. Haines	officer: EVP,CFO, TREASURER & SECRETARY	8905 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 108, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Richard A. Baker	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	3 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Edward H Meyer	director	C/O OCEAN ROAD ADVISORS INC, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 26TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Laurie A. Sneve	officer: Sr.VP,Chief Accounting Officer	8905 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 108, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Glenhill Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	600 FIFTH AVE, 11TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10020
Glenhill Capital Overseas Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 FIFTH AVE, 11TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10020