What is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (Red Robin Gourmet Burgers) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10000 E. Geddes Avenue, Suite 500, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is a restaurant operator. The company develops, operates, and franchises casual-dining restaurants and fast-casual restaurants in North America. Its brands are Red Robin, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Red Robin America's Gourmet Burgers and Spirits, Red Robin Burger Works, YUMMM, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and Brews, and Red Robin Royalty names and logos. The company's revenue consists of sales from restaurant operations, gift card breakage, franchise royalties and fees, and other miscellaneous revenue.
Executives
| Archon Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
1100 19TH AVENUE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98112 |
| Jyoti A. Lynch |
officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER |
5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, 3RD FLOOR, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Gerard Johan Hart |
director |
6040 DUTCHMANS LANE, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE KY 40205 |
| Christofilis, Constantinos |
10 percent owner |
2010 EAST GALER STREET, SEATTLE WA 98112 |
| Nicole Miller Regan |
director |
10000 E GEDDES AVE, STE 500, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Allison A. Page |
director |
6312 S FIDDLERS GREEN CIRCLE, SUITE 200N, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Kevin E. Mayer |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
7755 CENTER AVE., SUITE 300, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92647 |
| Geoffrey Wayne Davis |
officer: Chief Human Resource Officer |
6312 S FIDDLERS GREEN CIRCLE, 200N, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Sarah A. Mussetter |
officer: CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER |
HOLME ROBERTS & OWEN LLP, 1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 4100, DENVER CO 80203 |
| David Pace |
director |
|
| Thomas G. Conforti |
director |
WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORPORATION, 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Joshua Todd Wilson |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
10000 E GEDDES AVE, STE 500, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Steve Lumpkin |
director |
10580 W. 192ND PLACE, SPRING HILLS KS 60083 |
| Cheri Kinder |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
14800 LANDMARK BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, ADDISON TX 75254 |
| Murphy Paul J B Iii |
director, officer: President and CEO |
|
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