Silvercrest Asset Management Group (Silvercrest Asset Management Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Silvercrest Asset Management Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Silvercrest Asset Management Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Silvercrest Asset Management Group (Silvercrest Asset Management Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc (NAS:SAMG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1330 Avenue of the Americas, 38th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.silvercrestgroup.com

Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc is a wealth management firm focused on providing financial advisory and related family office services to ultra-high net-worth individuals and institutional investors. It advises clients on traditional investment strategies focused on equities, fixed income and cash as well as non-traditional investment strategies including hedge funds, private equity funds, real estate and commodities. It also provides clients with family office services and related administrative services, which include financial planning, tax planning and preparation, partnership accounting and fund administration, and consolidated wealth reporting. The company derives revenues principally from assets under management.

Executives

Darla Romfo	director	C/O SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brian D Dunn	director	SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC, 1330 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard Jonathan Burns	director	SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Conrad Winthrop B Jr	director	1120 FIFTH AVENUE APT 12B, NEW YORK NY 10128
Scott A Gerard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
David J Campbell	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	40 HAMILTON ROAD, GLEN RIDGE NJ 07028
Hough Richard R Iii	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	327 BRANCH AVENUE, LITTLE SILVER NJ 07739
John Allen Gray	officer: Managing Director	SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Al Messina	director	C/O SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Marital Trust Under Article 7th Of The Will Of G. Moffett Cochran	10 percent owner	SILVERCREST, 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10019
Cochran H C Stuart	10 percent owner	120 CHURCH STREET, STAUNTON VA 24401
Nonmarital Trust Under Article 8th Of The Will Of G. Moffett Cochran	other: Member of Section 13(d) group	SILVERCREST, 1330 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, 38TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10019
Hamilton E James	10 percent owner	JEFFERSON RIVER CAPITAL, 499 PARK AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Leo Price Blackford	10 percent owner	C/O CENTRAL SECURITIES CORPORATION, 630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 820, NEW YORK NY 10111
Richard Scott Pechter	director	1266 BELLAIRE LANE, ATLANTA GA 30319-5251