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Sanmina (Sanmina) Predictability Rank


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What is Sanmina Predictability Rank?

3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Sanmina Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sanmina Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sanmina (Sanmina) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2700 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134
Sanmina Corp is a provider of integrated manufacturing solutions, components, and after-market services to original equipment manufacturers in the communications networks, storage, industrial, defense and aerospace end markets. The company operates in two business segments: Integrated Manufacturing Solutions, which consists of printed circuit board assembly and represents a majority of the firm's revenue; and Components, Products, and Services, which includes interconnect systems and mechanical systems. The firm generates revenue primarily in the United States, China, and Mexico, but has a presence around the world.
Executives
Eugene A Delaney director 1303 E ALGONQUIN RD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Hedley David V Iii director 2700 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Alan Mcwilliams Reid officer: Exec VP,Global Human Resources 2700 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jure Sola director, officer: Chairman and CEO 14899 GRANITE WAY, SARATOGA CA 95070
Mythili Sankaran director 27000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Susan K Barnes director
Charlie Mason officer: EVP, Integrated Mfg Services 2700 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Brent Billinger officer: SVP & Corp Controller 2700 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
John Goldsberry director C/O GATEWAY, INC, 7565 IRVINE CENTER DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618
Kurt Adzema officer: EVP & CFO 1389 MOFFETT PARK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Susan A Johnson director 2700 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jackie M Ward director SYSCO CORPORATION, 1390 ENCLAVE PARWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Mario M Rosati director 650 PAGE MILL RD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Dennis Young officer: Exec VP Worldwide Sales 246 OVERALL PHILLIPS ROAD, ELIZABETH TOWN KY 42701
Rita S. Lane director 1303 E. ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196

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