What is S&W Seed Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
S&W Seed Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
S&W Seed Co (S&W Seed Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2101 Ken Pratt Boulevard, Suite 201, Longmont, CO, USA, 80501
S&W Seed Co is a multi-crop, middle-market agricultural company. It is engaged in the breeding, production, and sale of alfalfa seed and sorghum seed. It also has a growing commercial market presence in sunflower and maintains an active stevia development program. The company's seed platform develops and supplies germplasm designed to produce higher yields for farmers worldwide. It produces approximately 500 seed products and has a sale in more than 40 countries. Its geographical segments include the United States, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, South Africa, and other countries.
Executives
| Vanessa Baughman |
officer: Interim CFO |
C/O S&W SEED COMPANY, 2101 KEN PRATT BLVD., SUITE 201, LONGMONT CO 80501 |
| Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Mark Herrmann |
director |
C/O S&W SEED COMPANY, 2101 KEN PRATT BLVD., SUITE 201, LONGMONT CO 80501 |
| Jennifer C. Price |
10 percent owner, other: See remarks |
C/O MFP INVESTORS LLC, 909 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Mark Wong |
director, officer: CEO and President |
BIOFUEL ENERGY CORP., 1600 BROADWAY, SUITE 2200, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Elizabeth Horton |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O S&W SEED COMPANY, 2101 KEN PRATT BLVD., SUITE 201, LONGMONT CO 80501 |
| David Thomas Callachor |
officer: Executive VP, International |
C/O S&W SEED COMPANY, 106 K STREET, SUITE 300, SACRAMENTO CA 95814 |
| Mfp Partners Lp |
10 percent owner, other: See remarks below |
909 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, New York NY 10022 |
| Alan D Willits |
director |
5122 PURDUE AVENUE, DALLAS TX 75209 |
| Matthew K Szot |
officer: VP Finance and CFO |
802 NORTH DOUTY STREET, HANFORD CA 93230 |
| Robert D Straus |
director |
230 EAST 44TH ST APT 9C, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Wynnefield Capital, Inc. Profit Sharing Plan |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Small Cap Value Offshore Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Capital Inc |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Joshua Landes |
10 percent owner |
|
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