What is EchoStar Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
EchoStar Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
EchoStar (EchoStar) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Inverness Terrace East, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112-5308
Following the Dish Network merger, satellite television provides the bulk of EchoStar's revenue. The firm serves about 7 million U.S. customers, about 10% of the traditional television market. It launched an internet-based television offering under the Sling brand in 2015 and serves about 2 million customers on this platform. EchoStar's future, however, hinges primarily on the wireless business. The firm has amassed an extensive portfolio of spectrum licenses over the past 15 years and is building a nationwide wireless network. It acquired Sprint's prepaid business and serves about 8 million customers, primarily under the Boost brand. EchoStar's legacy businesses provide satellite telecom services and equipment to businesses and consumers, including about 1 million internet customers.
Executives
| C Mike Schroeder |
director |
100 INVERNESS TERRACE EAST, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Jeffrey R Tarr |
director |
DIGITALGLOBE, INC., 1300 WEST 120TH AVENUE, WESTMINSTER CO 80234 |
| William David Wade |
director |
11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Lisa W. Hershman |
director |
PO BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634 |
| R Stanton Dodge |
director |
ECHOSTAR CORPORATION, 100 INVERNESS TERRACE EAST, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Ergen Two-year June 2023 Sats Grat |
10 percent owner |
9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Ergen Two-year June 2022 Sats Grat |
10 percent owner |
9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Ergen Two-year June 2021 Sats Grat |
10 percent owner |
9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Pradman P Kaul |
director |
11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Hamid Akhavan |
officer: CEO and President |
1226 EARNESTINE ST., MCLEAN VA 22101 |
| Ergen Two-year March 2022 Sats Grat |
10 percent owner |
9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Veronika Takacs |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Adrian Morris |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
HUGHES COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Ramesh Ramaswamy |
officer: Executive VP - International |
11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Michelle Pearre |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
11717 EXPLORATION LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
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