What is Seacoast Banking of Florida Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Seacoast Banking of Florida Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Seacoast Banking of Florida (Seacoast Banking of Florida) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
815 Colorado Avenue, Stuart, FL, USA, 34994
Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida is a holding company for Seacoast National Bank. The Company provides integrated financial services including commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and mortgage and insurance services to customers across Florida, and through mobile and online banking solutions. In addition, it provides services such as treasury management, brokerage, and credit facilities.
Executives
| Charles M Shaffer |
director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO |
C/O SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FL, 815 COLORADO AVE., P. O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Robert J Lipstein |
director |
1661 WORTHINGTON ROAD, SUITE 100, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33409 |
| Stallings James C Iii |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
P.O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Jacqueline Lynette Bradley |
director |
5336 ISLEWORTH COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, WINDERMERE FL 34786 |
| Maryann Goebel |
director |
411 NORTH NEW RIVER DRIVE EAST, UNIT 2902, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301 |
| Dennis J Arczynski |
director |
5771 HAWKES BLUFF AVENUE, DAVIE FL 33331 |
| Thomas E Rossin |
director |
C/O SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FL, P. O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Christopher E Fogal |
director |
102 NE CHARLESTON OAK DRIVE, PORT ST. LUCIE FL 34983 |
| Alvaro Monserrat |
director |
2400 ACORN PALM ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33432 |
| Shearouse Joseph B Iii |
director |
P.O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Julie H Daum |
director |
1000 PALM WAY, NORTH PALM BEACH FL 33408 |
| Culbreth H Gilbert Jr |
director |
C/O SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FL, P. O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Austen Carroll |
officer: EVP, Chief Lending Officer |
P.O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Juliette Kleffel |
other: EVP of Subsidiary |
P.O. BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995 |
| Hudson Dennis S Iii |
director, officer: President & CEO |
815 COLORADO AVENUE, P O BOX 9012, STUART FL 34995-9012 |
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