Scientific Learning (Scientific Learning) Predictability Rank

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What is Scientific Learning Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scientific Learning Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Scientific Learning (Scientific Learning) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Scientific Learning Corp (OTCPK:SCIL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1956Â WebsterÂ Street, SuiteÂ 200, Oakland, CA, USA, 94612-2943

Website

http://www.scilearn.com

Scientific Learning Corp is an education company. It develops, distributes and licenses technology that accelerates learning by improving the processing efficiency of the brain. The company's patented products build learning capacity by rigorously and systematically applying neuroscience-based learning principles to improve the fundamental cognitive skills required to read and learn. The company offers a variety of on-site and remote professional and technical services, as well as phone, email and web-based support. The company sells primarily to K-12 schools in the United States through a direct sales force. It derives revenues in the form of subscription revenue, license revenue, support and professional services.

Executives

Steven G. Simon	10 percent owner	TRIGRAN INVESTMENTS, INC., 630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 230, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Lawrence A Oberman	10 percent owner	TRIGRAN INVESTMENTS, INC., 630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 230, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Trigran Investments Lp	10 percent owner	630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 230, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Trigran Investments, Inc.	10 percent owner	630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 230, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Douglas Granat	10 percent owner	TRIGRAN INVESTMENTS, INC., SUITE 230, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Jane A Freeman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ALLSPRING FUNDS MANAGEMENT, LLC, 525 MARKET STREET, 12TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Osmium Capital Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Spartan L P	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
John Hartnett Lewis	10 percent owner	388 MARKET STREET, SUITE 920, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Osmium Capital Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Gayle A Crowell	director
Dino A Rossi	director	61 WATROO POINT, DANIEL ISLAND SC 29492
Joseph B Martin	director	C/O BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC., ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Warburg Pincus Ventures Lp	10 percent owner	E M WARBURG PINCUS & CO INC 466 LEXINGTON AVE 10TH FL NEW YORK NY 10017-3147