Seaboard (Seaboard) Predictability Rank

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What is Seaboard Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seaboard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Seaboard Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Seaboard (Seaboard) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Seaboard Corp (AMEX:SEB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S0V:Germany

Address

9000 West 67th Street, Merriam, KS, USA, 66202

Website

https://www.seaboardcorp.com

Seaboard Corp is a diversified group of companies that operate in agricultural and ocean transport businesses. The company is engaged in hog production and pork processing in the United States; commodity trading and grain processing in Africa and South America; cargo shipping services in the U.S., Caribbean and Central and South America; sugar and alcohol production in Argentina; and electric power generation in the Dominican Republic. It also has an equity method investment in Butterball, LLC, a producer and processor of turkey products. The group operates six business segments: pork, commodity trading and milling, marine, sugar and alcohol, power, and turkey. It operates in 45 countries, with a concentration in the U.S. and countries in Central and South America and Africa.

Executives

Cerezo Baena Laura P	officer: Assistant Secretary	9000 W 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Barbara M Smith	officer: Interim Controller and PAO	9000 W 67TH STREET, MERRIAM KS 66202
Frances B Shifman	director	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Vacas Jacques Emma Alejandra	officer: Assistant Treasurer	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
James T Hubler	officer: Assoc. Gen Counsel & Asst. Sec	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Benjamin R Hodes	officer: Vice President, Finance	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Elizabeth A Loudon	officer: Vice President, Tax	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
John B Warner	officer: Vice President-Human Resources	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Adriana N Hoskins	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, MERRIAM KS 66202
Peter B Brown	officer: Pres. & CEO, Seaboard Foods	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Jacob A. Bresky	officer: Vice Pres-Business Development	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Ellen S. Bresky	director, 10 percent owner	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Douglas W Baena	director
Darwin E Sand	officer: Pres. & CEO, Seaboard Foods	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Winfield Ivan J. Jr	officer: VP-Information Technology	9000 WEST 67TH STREET, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202