Origin Agritech (Origin Agritech) Predictability Rank

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What is Origin Agritech Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Origin Agritech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Origin Agritech (Origin Agritech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Origin Agritech Ltd (NAS:SEED) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

39O1:Germany

Address

No. 21 Sheng Ming Yuan Road, Changping District, Beijing, CHN, 102206

Website

http://www.originseed.com.cn

Origin Agritech Ltd is a Chinese agricultural technology company. In crop seed biotechnologies, the company's phytase corn was the first transgenic corn to receive the Bio-Safety Certificate from China's Ministry of Agriculture. Origin has established a robust biotechnology seed pipeline including products with glyphosate tolerance and pest resistance (Bt) traits.

Executives

Jeff Feinberg	10 percent owner	20600 NORTHRIDGE ROAD, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Steven Urbach	director	C/O CHARDAN CAPITAL MARKETS, LLC, 17 STATE STREET, SUITE 2575, NEW YORK NY 10004
Michael D Chermak	director
Gengchen Han	director, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	21 SHENGMINGYUAN RD, CHANGPING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 102206
Bailiang Zhang	director	95 WENHUA RD., HENAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, ZHENGZHOU F4 450002
Dafang Huang	director	BIOTECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 12 ZHONGGUANCUN SOUTH AVE., BEIJING F4 100081
Remo Richli	director	IM NEUHOF 28, EMMENBRUCKE V8 6020
Richard D Propper	officer: VP for Corporate Development
Kerry Propper	director	CHARDAN CHINA ACQUISITION CORP, 777 SOUTH HIGHWAY 101, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Yasheng Yang	director, officer: President, Treasurer, COO	21 SHENGMINGYUAN RD, CHANGPING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 102206
Liang Yuan	director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman	21 SHENGMINGYUAN RD, CHANGPING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 102206