Select Medical Holdings (Select Medical Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2009. Start your Free Trial

What is Select Medical Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Select Medical Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Select Medical Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Select Medical Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Select Medical Holdings (Select Medical Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Select Medical Holdings Corp (NYSE:SEM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S24:Germany

Address

4714 Gettysburg Road, P.O. Box 2034, Mechanicsburg, PA, USA, 17055

Website

https://www.selectmedicalholdings.com

Select Medical Holdings Corp is a healthcare company that operates through four main segments: critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and Concentra institutions. Critical illness recovery hospitals and rehabilitation centres are designed for patients requiring extended recovery time with medical services. These two sectors combined compose roughly half of the total revenue and include over 103 critical illness recovery hospitals and inpatient rehab facilities. The outpatient rehabilitation segment includes over 1,928 rehabilitation clinics. The Concentra segment includes over 540 occupational health centers and 147 onsite clinics. The company is headquartered in Pennsylvania, and it operates across the United States.

Executives

Robert A Ortenzio	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	4718 OLD GETTYSBURG RD, POST OFFICE BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 30309
Breighner Robert G. Jr	officer: Vice President, Compliance	C/O SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD, MACHANICSBURG PA 17055
Michael F Malatesta	officer: Senior Vice President, Finance	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG RD, P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Christopher Weigl	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD, P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
David S Chernow	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O JUNIOR ACHIEVEMENT INC, ONE EDUCATION WAY, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Parvinderjit S. Khanuja	director	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG RD, P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Marilyn B Tavenner	director	13600 BUTLERS ROAD, AMELIA COURT HOUSE VA 23002
Michael E Tarvin	officer: Executive Vice President	4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD, PO BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Martin F Jackson	officer: Executive Vice President	4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD, PO BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Katherine R Davisson	director	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD, P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Ely James S. Iii	director	4000 MERIDIAN BLVD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Scott A Romberger	officer: Senior Vice President	4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD, PO BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Thomas P Mullin	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD, P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Leopold Swergold	director
Daniel Thomas	director	C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION, 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD P.O. BOX 2034, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055