Sound Financial Bancorp (Sound Financial Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Sound Financial Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sound Financial Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sound Financial Bancorp (Sound Financial Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Sound Financial Bancorp Inc (NAS:SFBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2400 3rd Avenue, Suite 150, Seattle, WA, USA, 98121

Website

https://www.soundcb.com

Sound Financial Bancorp Inc operates as the holding company for Sound Community Bank that provides traditional banking and other financial services for individuals and businesses. It attracts retail and commercial deposits from the public and invests those funds, along with borrowed funds, in loans secured by first and second mortgages on one-to-four-family residences including home equity loans and lines of credit, commercial and multifamily real estate, construction and land, consumer and commercial business loans. The bank also offers secured and unsecured consumer loan products, including manufactured home loans, floating home loans, automobile loans, boat loans, and recreational vehicle loans.

Executives

Joseph Stilwell	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Robert F Carney	director	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL INC, 2005 FIFTH AVENUE 2ND FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98121
James E Sweeney	director	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL INC, 2005 FIFTH AVENUE 2ND FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98121
Haddad David S Jr	director, other: Vice Chairman of the Board	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL INC, 2005 FIFTH AVENUE 2ND FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98121
Brandon Lance	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	SOUND FINANCIAL BANCORP, INC., 2400 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121
Jennifer L Mallon	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Acct. Officer	SOUND FINANCIAL BANCORP, INC., 2400 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121
Daphne Kelley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL BANCORP, INC., 2400 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121
Wes Ochs	officer: Executive Vice President	SOUND FINANCIAL, INC., 2400 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121
Stilwell Partners L P	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Llc	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Partners Vii, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Charles L Turner	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL BANCORP, INC., 2400 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121
Debra Jones	director	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL INC, 2400 3RD AVE., SUITE 150, SEATTLE WA 98121