Siebert Financial (Siebert Financial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is Siebert Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Siebert Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Siebert Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Siebert Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Siebert Financial (Siebert Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Siebert Financial Corp (NAS:SIEB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STF:Germany

Address

535 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.siebert.com

Siebert Financial Corp is a holding company. It conducts retail discount brokerage business through its wholly-owned subsidiary. The firm mainly provides online and traditional brokerage and related services to retail investors and also acts as an investment advisor for its subsidiary. The company operates in the securities brokerage and asset management industry. It also engages in Insurance services, Robo-advisory technology, and Prime brokerage business through its subsidiaries.

Executives

Hocheol Simon Shin	director	535 FIFTH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kakao Corp	10 percent owner	TOWER A, 166 PANGYOYEOK-RO, BUNDANG-GU, GYEONGGI-DO, SEONGNAM-SI M5 13529
Kakaopay Corp	10 percent owner	15F, TOWER B, 166 PANGYOYEOK-RO, BUNDANG-GU, SEONGNAM-SI, GYEONGGI-DO, SEONGNAM-SI M5 13529
John M. Gebbia	other: MEMBER OF 10% OWNER GROUP	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Cynthia Dibartolo	other: See footnote	535 FIFTH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
John J Gebbia	director	120 WALL STREET, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
David Gebbia	other: MEMBER OF 10% OWNER GROUP	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Richard Gebbia	other: MEMBER OF 10% OWNER GROUP	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Gloria E Gebbia	director, other: 10% Owner(1)	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Kennedy Cabot Acquisition, Llc	10 percent owner	24100 CALABASAS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Francis V Cuttita	director	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Jerry M Schneider	director	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Charles Zabatta	director	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Andrew H Reich	director, officer: EVP, COO, CFO and Secretary	C/O GUSRAE KAPLAN NUSBAUM PLLC, 120 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Leonard M Leiman	director	C/O SIEBERT FINANCIAL CORP, 885 THIRD AVE STE 1720, NEW YORK NY 10022