What is SINA Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
SINA Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
SINA (SINA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Courtyard 10, the West Xibeiwang East Road, No. 8 SINA Plaza, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN, 100193
Sina is a leading online media company in China, established in 1998. In 2009, Sina launched the first Twitter-like social media platform in China, Weibo, which has reached 361 million monthly active users and 159 million daily active users. Sina holds 46% of shares and has 72% voting power in Weibo, and Alibaba holds 31.4% of shares and 14.8% voting power. About 85% of net revenue is from online advertising, with 29.5% from portal advertising and 55.4% from Weibo advertising.
Executives
| Hurst Lin |
director |
|
| Yan Wang |
director |
|
| Benjamin S Tsiang |
officer: Executive Vice President |
|
| Pehong Chen |
director |
460 SEAPORT COURT, SUITE 102, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Yongji Duan |
director |
NO 2 HAIDIAN ROAD C/O PATRICK NG ZHONGGUANCUN F4 00000 |
| Ter Fung Tsao |
director |
2988 CAMPUS DRIVE STE 100 SAN MATEO CA 94403 |
| Yi Chen Zhang |
director |
28/F CITIC TOWER 1 TIM MEI AVENUE HONG KONG K3 00000 |
| Xiaotao Chen |
director |
C/O STONE ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY 27/F, K. WAH CENTRE, 191 JAVA ROAD NORTH POINT K3 |
| Song-yi Zhang |
director |
C/O: 10/F, FUNG HOUSE, 19-20 CONNAUGHT ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG K3 - |
| Lip Bu Tan |
director |
ONE CALIFORNIA STREET 28TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Charles Guowei Chao |
director, officer: CEO & President |
|
| Herman Yu |
officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SINA, 20F, IDEAL PLAZA NO. 58, NORTH 4TH RING ROAD WEST HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BE F4 100080 |
| Daniel Chiang |
director |
|
| Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd |
10 percent owner |
NO. 208 JULI ROAD PUDONG NEW AREA SHANGHAI F4 201203 |
| Skyline Media Ltd |
10 percent owner |
PALM GROVE HOUSE P.O. BOX 438 ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000 |
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