SJW Group (SJW Group) Predictability Rank

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What is SJW Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SJW Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SJW Group (SJW Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » SJW Group (NYSE:SJW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

76W:Germany

Address

110 West Taylor Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110

Website

https://www.sjwgroup.com

SJW Group is a U.S. water utility services holding company that provides, stores, purifies and distributes water. The company primarily operates in various California municipalities and also has operations in other states. Its operating segments include Water Utility Services and Real Estate Services. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from its water utility services segment.

Executives

Denise L Kruger	director
Carl Guardino	director	110 W. TAYLOR STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Craig J Patla	officer: President of CTWS	CONNECTICUT WATER COMPANY, 93 WEST MAIN STREET, CLINTON CT 06413
Mohammed G. Zerhouni	officer: SVP of Fin., Prin. Acct. Ofcr.	110 W. TAYLOR STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Andrew Gere	officer: President and COO	1221 SOUTH BASCOM AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95128
James Patrick Lynch	officer: CFO/Treasurer	1675 LAURELWOOD DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Bruce A Hauk	officer: Chf. Crp. Dev. & Str. Offcr.	110 W. TAYLOR STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Rebecca A Klein	director	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Katharine Armstrong	director	919 CONGRESS AVENUE #1400, AUSTIN TX 78701
Brown Willie D. Jr.	officer: VP, Gen Counsel, & Corp Sec	110 W. TAYLOR STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Wendy Avila-walker	officer: VP of Finance, Controller	110 W. TAYLOR STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Andrew F Walters	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	8 RIVER TERRACE, APT 8-T, NEW YORK NY 10282
Daniel B. More	director	56 W BROTHER DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Douglas R King	director	465 EL CENTRO ROAD, HILLSBOROUGH CA 94010
Mary Ann Hanley	director	93 WEST MAIN STREET, CLINTON CT 06413