Skyline Champion (Skyline Champion) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1969. Start your Free Trial

What is Skyline Champion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skyline Champion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Skyline Champion Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Skyline Champion's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Skyline Champion (Skyline Champion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Skyline Champion Corp (NYSE:SKY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

755 West Big Beaver Road, Suite 1000, Troy, MI, USA, 48084

Website

https://www.skylinechampion.com

Skyline Champion Corp is a factory-built housing company in North America. The company offers a portfolio of manufactured and modular homes, park model RVs, accessory dwelling units and modular buildings for the multi-family, hospitality, senior and workforce housing sectors. It designs and builds a range of manufactured and modular homes, park model RVs, ADUs, and commercial structures. It builds homes under brand names in the factory-built housing industry including Skyline Homes, Champion Home Builders, Genesis Homes, Athens Park Models, Dutch Housing, Excel Homes, Homes of Merit, New Era, Redman Homes, ScotBilt Homes, Shore Park, Silvercrest, and Titan Homes in the U.S., and Moduline and SRI Homes in western Canada. It generates maximum revenue from U.S. Factory-built Housing segment.

Executives

Keith A Anderson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CHAMPION ENTERPRISES HOLDINGS LLC, 755 W BIG BEAVER RD, #1000, TROY MI 48084
Heath Jenkins	officer: President, Retail Operations	755 W BIG BEAVER ROAD, SUITE 1000, TROY MI 48084
Timothy A. Burkhardt	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O CHAMPION ENTERPRISES HOLDINGS LLC, 755 W BIG BEAVER RD, #1000, TROY MI 48084
Tawn Kelley	director	4900 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 2000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Joseph A. Kimmell	officer: EVP	C/O SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION, 755 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, SUITE 1000, TROY MI 48084
Mark J. Yost	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CHAMPION ENTERPRISES HOLDINGS LLC, 755 W BIG BEAVER RD, #1000, TROY MI 48084
Michael B Berman	director	C/O GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES, 110 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Gary E Robinette	director	5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513
Nikul Patel	director	11115 RUSHMORE DR, CHARLOTTE NC 28277-3442
Jonathan Wade Lyall	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION, 755 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, SUITE 1000, TROY MI 48084
Laurie M. Hough	officer: EVP, CFO, Treasurer	C/O CHAMPION ENTERPRISES HOLDINGS LLC, 755 W BIG BEAVER RD, #1000, TROY MI 48084
Timothy Mark Larson	officer: Chief Growth Officer	C/O SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION, 755 W. BIG BEAVER RD., SUITE 1000, TROY MI 48084
Mak Capital One Llc	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Erin Mulligan Nelson	director	C/O SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION, 755 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, SUITE 1000, TROY MI 48084
Eddie Capel	director	2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 1000, ATLANTA GA 30339