What is Super Micro Computer Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Super Micro Computer Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Super Micro Computer (Super Micro Computer) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
980 Rock Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131
Super Micro Computer Inc provides high-performance server technology services to cloud computing, data center, Big Data, high-performance computing, and "Internet of Things" embedded markets. Its solutions include server, storage, blade and workstations to full racks, networking devices, and server management software. The firm follows a modular architectural approach, which provides flexibility to deliver customized solutions. The Company operates in one operating segment that develops and provides high-performance server solutions based upon an innovative, modular and open-standard architecture. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from Europe, Asia, and other regions.
Executives
| Daniel W Fairfax |
director |
1421 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035 |
| Robert L Blair |
director |
48401 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538 |
| Liu Liang Chiu-chu Sara |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Senior VP and Treasurer |
980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Charles Liang |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC., 980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Sherman Tuan |
director |
C/O ABOVENET COMMUNICATIONS INC, 50 W SAN FERNANDO STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95113 |
| David E Weigand |
officer: SVP, CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| George Kao |
officer: SVP, OPERATIONS |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Shiu Leung Chan |
director |
48401 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538 |
| Don W Clegg |
officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Judy L. Lin |
director |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Tally C Liu |
director |
50 W SAN FERNANDO ST 15TH FLR, SAN JOSE CA 95113 |
| Hwei-ming Fred Tsai |
director |
980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Kevin S Bauer |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
980 ROCK AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Cheng-hsien Phidias Chou |
officer: VP Worldwide Sales |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Howard Hideshima |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
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