What is Summit Financial Group Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Summit Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Summit Financial Group (Summit Financial Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
300 North Main Street, Moorefield, WV, USA, 26836
Summit Financial Group Inc is a financial holding company. The company provides community banking services in the Eastern Panhandle, Southern, and North Central regions of West Virginia and the Northern, Shenandoah Valley, and Southwestern regions of Virginia. It provides a wide range of community banking services, including demand, savings, and time deposits; commercial, real estate, and consumer loans; trust and wealth management services; and cash management services.
Executives
| Gary L Hinkle |
director |
PO BOX 65, CIRCLEVILLE WV 26804 |
| Jill S Upson |
director |
336 PEBBLE BEACH DRIVE, CHARLES TOWN WV 25414 |
| Scott C Jennings |
director, officer: Senior VP/ COO |
PO BOX 438, MOOREFIELD WV 26836 |
| Oscar M Bean |
director |
PO BOX 179, MOOREFIELD WV 26836 |
| Joseph Hager |
officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer |
221 HAYES AVENUE, CHARLESTON WV 25314 |
| Patricia L Owens |
officer: Ex. VP & Chief Banking Officer |
9328 EAGEL CT, MANASSAS PARK VA 20111 |
| Danyl R Freeman |
officer: EVP & Chief Human Resources Of |
388 VALLEY VIEW ROAD, MOOREFIELD WV 26836 |
| Angela R Zirk |
officer: EVP & Chief Experience Officer |
PO BOX 23, OLD FIELDS WV 26845 |
| Lauren N. Kimlel |
officer: EVP & Chief Banking Officer |
22453 INDIAN POINT ROAD, BOZMAN MD 21612 |
| David Wilson |
director |
POST OFFICE BOX 2707, EASTON MD 21601 |
| John H Shott |
director |
PO BOX 407, BLUEFIELD WV 24701 |
| Jason A Kitzmiller |
director |
8070 LUNICE CREEK, MAYSVILLE WV 26833 |
| Charles Pieirillo |
director |
PO BOX 38, MADISON WV 25130 |
| James M Cookman |
director |
PO BOX 179, MOOREFIELD WV 26836 |
| Georgette R. George |
director |
PO BOX 8523, CHARLESTON WV 25303 |
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