SanDisk (SanDisk) Predictability Rank

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What is SanDisk Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SanDisk Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SanDisk (SanDisk) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » SanDisk Corp (NAS:SNDK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.sandisk.com

SanDisk Corp was incorporated in Delaware in June 1988. The Company designs, develops and manufactures data storage solutions in a variety of form factors using flash memory, controller, firmware and software technologies. Its solutions include SSDs, embedded products, removable cards, universal serial bus, or USB, drives, wireless media drives, digital media players and wafers and components. The Company's SSD products are used in both client computing platforms and enterprise data centers. Its embedded flash products are used in mobile phones, tablets, computing platforms, imaging devices, and many other products. Its removable cards are used in consumer electronics devices such as mobile phones, tablets, digital cameras, gaming devices and personal computers or PCs. The Company operates in one segment, flash memory storage products. It operates in United States, China, Taiwan, Other Asia-Pacific & Europe, Middle East and Africa. The Company competes with NAND flash memory manufacturers, including Hynix, Intel, Micron Technology, Inc., or Micron, Samsung and Toshiba. The Company's primary competitors currently include, among others, Kingston Technology Company, Inc., or Kingston, Lexar Media, Inc., or Lexar, a subsidiary of Micron, PNY Technologies, Inc., or PNY, Samsung, Sony and Transcend Information, Inc., or Transcend. In the USB flash drive market. SanDisk is the Company's trademark, and is registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Executives

Judy Bruner	officer: Exec. VP, Administration, CFO	C/O SANDISK CORPORATION, 601 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Mark David Brazeal	officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer & IP	1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Eddy W Hartenstein	director
Chenming Hu	director	2060 PEBBLE DRIVE, ALAMO CA 94507
Catherine P Lego	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Michael E Marks	director
Steven J Gomo	director	495 E. JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Sanjay Mehrotra	director, officer: President/CEO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 3355 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92612
Robertson Donald F Jr	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NVIDIA CORPORATION, 2788 SAN TOMAS EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Srinivasan Sivaram	officer: EVP, Memory Technology	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Irwin Federman	director	2735 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sumit Sadana	officer: EVP, CSO & GM Enterprise	47544 AVALON HEIGHTS TERRACE, FREMONT CA 94539
Eric S Whitaker	officer: SVP & Senior Legal Officer
Kevin A Denuccio	director	300 HOLGER WAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Randhir Thakur	officer: EVP,Technology & Worldwide Ops	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039