Suburban Propane Partners LP (Suburban Propane Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Suburban Propane Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Suburban Propane Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Suburban Propane Partners LP (Suburban Propane Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE:SPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

240 Route 10 West, P.O. Box 206, Whippany, NJ, USA, 07981

Website

https://www.suburbanpropane.com

Suburban Propane Partners LP distributes propane, fuel oil, and other refined fuels to customers in the East Coast and West Coast regions of the United States. Other operations include natural gas and electricity marketing in the deregulated New York and Pennsylvania markets. The company operates in three segments: Propane; Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels; and Natural Gas and Electricity. It generates maximum revenue from Propane segment.

Executives

Michael A Stivala	officer: Controller	C/O SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP, P O BOX 206, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Douglas Brinkworth	officer: Vice President, Product Supply	C/O SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTERS, L.P., 240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Nandini Sankara	officer: VP Mark. & Brand Strategy	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Samuel Hodges	officer: Vice President-Area Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Brent Stubbs	officer: VP - Area Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Alejandro Centeno	officer: VP, Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Logan Harold R Jr	director
Rommel Oates	director	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Amy Adams	director	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Michael A Schueler	officer: Vice President-Product Supply	C/O SUBURBAN PROPANE, 240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Bryon L Koepke	officer: VP,Gen.Counsel & Secretary	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Dee Arthur Tate	officer: Vice President-Area Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981-0206
Daniel W. Boyd	officer: Vice President-Area Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPANNY NJ 07981-0206
Gregory L. Boyd	officer: Vice President-Area Operations	240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981-0206
Francesca Cleffi	officer: Vice President,Human Resources	C/O SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS, L.P., 240 ROUTE 10 WEST, WHIPPANY NJ 07981-0206