Stoneridge (Stoneridge) Predictability Rank

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What is Stoneridge Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stoneridge Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Stoneridge (Stoneridge) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Stoneridge Inc (NYSE:SRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2GX:Germany

Address

39675 MacKenzie Drive, Suite 400, Novi, MI, USA, 48377

Website

https://www.stoneridge.com

Stoneridge Inc is a manufacturer of electrical and electronic components used in automotive vehicles. The company produces instrumentation systems, vehicle management electronics, application-specific switches and actuators, sensors, security alarms, and vehicle tracking devices and monitoring services for commercial, automotive, off-highway, and agricultural vehicle markets. Stoneridge generates the majority of its revenue in its Electronics segment that produces driver information systems, camera-based vision systems, connectivity, and compliance products, and electronic control units. Geographically, the company's operations are focused on North America. It has Control Devices, Electronics, and Stoneridge Brazil segments.

Executives

Susan C. Benedict	officer: CHRO and Assistant GC	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Rajaey Kased	officer: President Control Devices	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Caetano Roberto Ferraiolo	officer: Director President of PST	ALAMEDA GUARUJA, 199, CONDOMINIO JARDIM PAULISTA - CENTRO, VINHEDO - SP D5 13280-000
Mayes George S Jr	director	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Sheila M Rutt	director	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Carsten J Reinhardt	director	ARVINMERITOR, INC., 2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Paul J. Schlather	director	9400 EAST MARKET STREET, WARREN OH 44484
Salvatore D. Orsini	officer: Chief Procurement Officer	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Peter Osterberg	officer: President of Electronics	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Jonathan B Degaynor	officer: President and CEO	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 9400 EAST MARKET STREET, WARREN OH 44484
Matthew R. Horvath	officer: CFO	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Laurent Borne	officer: President Electronics Division	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Frank S Sklarsky	director	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
James Zizelman	officer: President Control Devices	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377