Simpson Manufacturing Co (Simpson Manufacturing Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Simpson Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Simpson Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Simpson Manufacturing Co (Simpson Manufacturing Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (NYSE:SSD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TWL:Germany TWL:Germany

Address

5956 W. Las Positas Boulevard, Pleasanton, CA, USA, 94588

Website

https://www.simpsonmfg.com

Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc is a manufacturer of wood construction products. The company offers connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners, prefabricated lateral systems, concrete construction products, adhesives, mechanical anchors, carbide drill bits, powder-actuated tools, and fiber reinforced materials. Simpson Manufacturing markets its products to the residential, light industrial, and commercial construction markets as well as the remodeling and do-it-yourself markets. The largest end market is the United States.

Executives

Roger Dankel	officer: President, Simpson Strong-Tie	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD., PLEASANTON CA 94588
James S Andrasick	director	SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO., INC., 5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Philip E Donaldson	director	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD., PLEASANTON CA 94588
Kevin Lee Swartzendruber	officer: Senior VP of Finance	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD., PLEASANTON CA 94588
Chau Banks	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Felica Coney	director	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Michael Andersen	officer: EVP, Europe	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Karen Winifred Colonias	officer: Vice President	C/O RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM CO., 16100 N. 71ST STREET, SUITE 400, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Brian J Magstadt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD., PLEASANTON CA 94588
Phillip Burton	officer: EVP, North America	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Jeremy Gilstrap	officer: EVP, Innovation	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Jennifer Lutz	officer: EVP, Human Resources	5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Kenneth D. Knight	director	1400 16TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Michael Olosky	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO., INC., 5956 W. LAS POSITAS BLVD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Michael A Bless	director	C/O ROCKWELL INTERNATIONAL INC, 777 E. WISCONSIN AVE #1400, MILWAUKEE WI 53202