SunLink Health Systems (SunLink Health Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is SunLink Health Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SunLink Health Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SunLink Health Systems (SunLink Health Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » SunLink Health Systems Inc (AMEX:SSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 Circle 75 Parkway, Suite 690, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30339

Website

http://www.sunlinkhealth.com

SunLink Health Systems Inc is engaged in providing retail pharmacy services. The company operates its business through segments namely the Healthcare Services segment and Pharmacy segment. The Healthcare Services segment includes subsidiaries that own and operates nearly 80-licensed-bed, acute care hospitals, which includes more than 18-bed geriatric psychology unit, and over 60-bed nursing home; own medical buildings, which are leased to unaffiliated healthcare providers, and adjacent vacant land; and provides information technology to outside customers. The Pharmacy segment, which is the key revenue generator is composed of retail pharmacy products and services that are conducted in rural markets; institutional pharmacy services; pharmacy services; and durable medical equipment.

Executives

Howard E Turner	director	135 PROVIDENCE OAKS POINTE, MILTON GA 30004
Thornton Robert M Jr	director, officer: CEO & Chairman	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, SUITE 690, ATLANTA GA 30339
C Michael Ford	director	310 NORRIS STREET, ST. MARYS GA 31558
Mills Christopher H B	director	6 STRATTON STREET, MAYFAIR, LONDON X0 W1J 8LD
Steven J Baileys	director	30691 HUNT CLUB DRIVE, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675
Sheila G. Brockman	officer: CEO So Health Corp of Houston	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, SUITE 690, ATLANTA GA 30339
Mark J Stockslager	officer: Corporate Controller and PAO	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY STE. 690, ATLANTA GA 30339
Karen B Brenner	director	P.O. BOX 9109, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92658
Gene E Burleson	director	320 ARGONNE DR, ATLANTA GA 30305-2814
A Ronald Turner	officer: Chief Operating Officer	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, SUITE 1120, ATLANTA GA 30339
Harry R Alvis	officer: Chief Operating Officer	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY STE. 1120, ATLANTA GA 30339
George D. Shaunnessy	other: Pres/CEO Sunlink Homecare Svcs	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, SUITE 1120, ATLANTA GA 30339
Jack M. Spurr	officer: VP, Hospital Financial Ops.	900 CIRCLE 75 PARKWAY, SUITE 1120, ATLANTA GA 30339
Michael William Hall	director	3406 RAVENWOOD LANE, MIRAMAR BEACH FL 32550
North Atlantic Value Llp	10 percent owner	RYDER COURT, 14 RYDER ST., LONDON A1 00000