Steel Dynamics (Steel Dynamics) Predictability Rank

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What is Steel Dynamics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Steel Dynamics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Steel Dynamics (Steel Dynamics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Steel Dynamics Inc (NAS:STLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STLD:Mexico 1STLD:Italy SD5:Germany

Address

7575 West Jefferson Boulevard, Fort Wayne, IN, USA, 46804

Website

https://www.steeldynamics.com

Steel Dynamics Inc operates scrap-based steel minimills with roughly 16 million tons of annual steel production capacity. The company's segment includes steel operations, metals recycling operations, and steel fabrication operations. It generates maximum revenue from the steel operations segment.

Executives

Glenn Pushis	officer: Senior Vice President	4500 COUNTY ROAD 59, BUTLER IN 46721
James C Marcuccilli	director	127 W BERRY ST, FORT WAYNE IN 46802
Bradley S Seaman	director	161 SHAWFORD WAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Richard A Poinsatte	officer: Senior Vice President	6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 200, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Jennifer L Hamann	director	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68130
Christopher A Graham	officer: Vice President	7575 W. JEFFERSON BLVD., FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Gabriel Shaheen	director	1540 PARILLA CIRCLE, TRINITY FL 34655
Keith E Busse	director	7575 W. JEFFERSON BLVD., FORT WAYNE IN 46804
James Stanley Anderson	officer: Senior Vice President	203 E BERRY STREET, AWB SUITE 804, FORT WAYNE IN 46802
Luis Manuel Sierra	director	1555 CORAOPOLIS HEIGHTS ROAD, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Miguel Alvarez	officer: Senior Vice President	7575 WEST JEFFERSON BLVD., FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Mark D Millett	director, officer: President and CEO	7575 W JEFFERSON BLVD, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Theresa E Wagler	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	7575 W JEFFERSON BLVD, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Russell B Rinn	officer: Executive Vice President	7575 WEST JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Kenneth W. Cornew	director	10 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603