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Strattec Security (Strattec Security) Predictability Rank


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What is Strattec Security Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Strattec Security Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Strattec Security Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Strattec Security's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Strattec Security (Strattec Security) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3333 West Good Hope Road, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53209
Strattec Security Corp designs develops, manufactures and markets mechanical locks, electronically enhanced locks and keys. It also produces ignition lock housings; access control products, including latches, power sliding door systems, and door handles. Strattec ships products to customer locations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, South America, Korea and China, and provides full-service aftermarket support. Strattec also supplies products for the heavy truck and recreational vehicle markets, as well as precision, die castings.
Executives
Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Liebau Frederic Jack Jr director P.O. BOX 2200, PASADENA CA 91102-2200
Bruce M Lisman director C/O MERCHANTS BANK, 275 KENNEDY DR, S. BURLINGTON VT 05403
Richard P Messina officer: VP-Strattec Power Access LLC C/O STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION, 3333 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Ggcp, Inc. 10 percent owner 189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Associated Capital Group, Inc. 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mario J Gabelli 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Dennis Bowe officer: Vice President and CFO 3333 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Patrick J Hansen officer: Vice Pres., CFO and Secretary C/O MACHTEN, INC., 1516 BARLOW STREET, SUITE D, TRAVERSE CITY MI 49686
Frank Krejci director
Tina M Chang director 375 BISHOPS WAY, SUITE 105, BROOKFIELD WI 53005
Stratton Harold M Ii director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO P.O. BOX 8057, NAPLES FL 34101
Al-waleed H. Hamdan officer: VP of Product Management 3333 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Rolando Guillot officer: Vice Pres.-Mexican Operations C/O STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION, 3333 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Brian J Reetz officer: VP - Security Products C/O STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION, 3333 WEST GOOD HOPE ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53209