Skyworks Solutions (Skyworks Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Skyworks Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skyworks Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Skyworks Solutions (Skyworks Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Skyworks Solutions Inc (NAS:SWKS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SWKS:Mexico AWM:Germany AWM:Germany AWM:Germany S1SL34:Brazil SWKS:Austria

Address

5260 California Avenue, Irvine, CA, USA, 92617

Website

https://www.skyworksinc.com

Skyworks Solutions produces semiconductors for wireless handsets and other devices that are used to enable wireless connectivity. Its main products include power amplifiers, filters, switches, and integrated front-end modules that support wireless transmissions. Skyworks' customers are mostly large smartphone manufacturers, but the firm also has a growing presence in nonhandset applications such as wireless routers, medical devices, and automobiles.

Executives

Karilee A Durham	officer: SVP, Human Resources	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Reza Kasnavi	officer: SVP, Tech. & Manufacturing	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Robert John Terry	officer: VP, General Counsel &Secretary	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Kris Sennesael	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Kevin L Beebe	director	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Liam Griffin	officer: VP, Sales and Marketing	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Philip Matthew Carter	officer: VP, Corp. Controller	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Maryann Turcke	director	C/O NORTHERN STAR INVESTMENT CORP. II, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Suzanne E. Mcbride	director	C/O IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC., 1750 TYSONS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, MCLEAN VA 22102
Eric Guerin	director	1950 HASSELL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169
Carlos S Bori	officer: VP, Sales & Marketing	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Timothy R Furey	director	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
P Mcglade David	director	5260 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
David J Aldrich	director, officer: President and CEO	20 SYLVAN ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Christine King	director	AMIS HOLDINGS, INC., 2300 BUCKSKIN RD, POCATELLO ID 83201